09-30-2024, 05:22 PM
This set of videos is extremely interesting and thought provoking.
The future may be so bright we have to wear shades, but to protect against nuclear fallout .. or, maybe not?
Quote:(Center for Strategic International Studies) CSIS’s Risk and Foresight Group created four plausible, differentiated scenarios to explore the changing geopolitical landscape of 2025-2030, including the potential lasting first- and second-order effects of Covid-19. The scenarios center on the relative power and influence of the United States and China and the interaction between them, along with detailed consideration of other major U.S. allies and adversaries within each of four worlds.
Each scenario narrative was informed by deep trends analysis and subject-matter-expert interviews. CSIS’s Dracopoulos iDeas Lab brought to life the scenarios in four engaging videos designed to test policymakers’ preconceived notions about the defense and security challenges facing the United States and its allies in the second half of this decade. This research was sponsored by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Strategic Trends Division.
Center for Strategic International Studies
Very brief summary, as the link contains a huge study with tables and charts and diagrams, etc.
Summary:
Quote:This scenario analysis found that the highest likelihood outcome for world order in the decade ahead would not be a unipolar order or a bipolar Cold War-style competition, but a loose multipolarity. Under any outcome, the relative strength of both the United States and China would be diluted or balanced by the influence and independent foreign and security policies of India, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and others. There also emerged in the scenarios a growing number of contestations of U.S. power and influence—in particular due to the “spoiler” or other nefarious behavior of Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Despite its relative loss of economic power during this timeframe, Russia remained the most problematic global actor for the United States and its allies, with only limited room for cooperation on issues of strategic stability. Iran was most aggressive across scenarios in which it sensed weakened U.S. commitment to the Middle East. North Korea remained a consistent challenge in the expansion of its weapons programs, though it was more open to negotiation when the United States was stronger and China was weaker. Violent extremist organizations were active across scenarios but more localized and less transnational. They preyed on relative U.S. weakness or its seeming retreat from key regions where they sought to consolidate gains and when they sensed diminished U.S. cooperation with regional partners.
Thoughts?
