Moscow Victory Day Parade in two and a half minutes

[NobodySpecial268]

I had never seen the Moscow Victory Day parade, so I watched it live. I thought it impressive. The parade is hours long, and I found a condensed version. As I can't embed the video here, here is a link to the parade in two and a half minutes.

Gigarama dot ru

If you pay attention, you will see the Chinese flag and Chinese troops marching with Russian troops.

I think that is a subtle signal for the west.

[Theatreboy]

I think, my opinion only, that China is very week right now. I think it has been since before covid. They are sending troops in an effort to make sure they have allies in the near future, including trading partners.

[NobodySpecial268]

I think, my opinion only, that China is very week right now. I think it has been since before covid. They are sending troops in an effort to make sure they have allies in the near future, including trading partners.

You may be right there, Theatreboy. Additionally, with all the sanctions and tariffs put on Russia, China and North Korea, it is logical that they would look towards each other for support to weather the storm. Geographically, it makes logical sense, too.

I would guess that the conflict with a Ukraine, backed by NATO, would put a strain on Russia.

The other side of the coin is NATO countries have spent a lot too. Elon Musk points out that America may be bankrupt in a few years. The UK can't find money for pensions, but can find lots more for military assistance to Ukraine. The EU seems to be just about broke too.

In a way, it looks to me that all the sanctions and tariffs have left Russia and China no choice but to work closely with each other.

[Theatreboy]

Can't disagree. I do hope it plays out as planned in the end for Trump.

Big gambles can equal big loses, but the wins are even bigger.

[NobodySpecial268]

Can't disagree. I do hope it plays out as planned in the end for Trump.

Big gambles can equal big loses, but the wins are even bigger.

Well, all else aside, Trump is still a real estate developer, which is something to keep in mind.  He also made quite a few boasts about ending the Ukraine conflict in just one day. Then it was 100 days, which has come and gone.  I think the man is out of his depth in international diplomacy. Especially when we look objectively at the Russian side.

He has also inherited a mess where the Europe and the USA has broken two agreements with Russia. Those were the Minsk Agreements one and two.  I think Trump's biggest problem is the Russians have learned that Europe, the USA and NATO cannot be trusted because the west makes agreements and shamelessly breaks them.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with the German newspaper Die Zeit admits:
"The 2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. They used that time to get stronger, which you can see today. Ukraine of 2014/15 is not Ukraine of today.
Merkel reveals the Minsk Agreement was a stalling tactic that allowed the West to militarize Ukraine as an anti-Russian proxy and fortify it for an inevitable war.

In other words:
Merkel admits that the war in Ukraine had been planned by the West and Ukraine for over a decade, and that the Minsk Agreement, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, was just a trick, to mislead Moscow while the West prepared Ukraine to war.

Germany lied to Russia when it promised that NATO would not move one inch eastwards if Russia supported the reunification with East Germany.

Germany lied to Russia again when Ukraine and Germany had no intention to honor the Minsk agreements.

Source: London Daily

How can Trump make a deal with the Russians, who have learned that agreements will probably be broken?

So I doubt the Russians will make a deal that suits Trump, nor Europe for that matter. I think Russia will just do what it thinks is right and achieve what it set out to achieve.

My own prognostication for the future is that Russia will take the regions that speak Russian, and probably the south to Odessa. The Americans will get to keep the rest as Trumps "deal". Perhaps as it was at the end of the second world war when Germany unconditionally surrendered to the Soviets.

The history of Germany from 1945 to 1990 comprises the period following World War II. The period began with the Berlin Declaration, marking the abolition of the German Reich and Allied-occupied period in Germany on 5 June 1945.

Source: Wikipedia History of Germany (1945–1990)

I think the final "deal" will be decided by Russia alone because the west demonstratedly cannot be trusted. - Who on earth would do business with someone who has a history of breaking deals?

[FCD]

Just a quick thought about countries going, or being, bankrupt.

If everyone goes bankrupt, then no one is bankrupt...because all the debt cancels itself out.  

Party A pays party B, who in turn has to pay party C.  But party C is in debt to party A, so they turn around and pay them.  It's just money changing hands with no resolution of the debt, a cat chasing its tail.  Nobody (entity or person) at that point can step out of the shadows and say they are the grand grantor of all this debt because unless they can defeat all of the most powerful militaries on Earth then they will simply be wiped off the map without another word said.

Of course, that's not how it will all happen in practice, but it doesn't change the net result in the end.  In practice, each of the superpowers will first make one final desperate attempt to extract every bit of wealth from its citizenry.  They will do this by endlessly printing money, creating runaway inflation, until their currencies are worthless.  Eventually the survivors, and there will be survivors, will remove these government from power, wipe the slate clean and start over.  We've seen it hundreds of times around the globe with smaller nations, and even some big ones.  Most recently, Africa (virtually all of Africa with the possible exception of South Africa), Venezuela, North Korea, Indonesia, and the USSR 1.0, etc..  Yes, millions will die from starvation or war as the beast thrashes about on its deathbed, but not everyone will perish.  And, for the foreseeable future, the Sun will rise on a new day.

If only the common person(s) of the World could see the reality of the 2nd sentence of this post, and not permit their governments to lie to them and make the rest of it come true before they remove their governments and leadership (likely by force).

[TokenLiberal]

Just a quick thought about countries going, or being, bankrupt.

If everyone goes bankrupt, then no one is bankrupt...because all the debt cancels itself out.  

Party A pays party B, who in turn has to pay party C.  But party C is in debt to party A, so they turn around and pay them.  It's just money changing hands with no resolution of the debt, a cat chasing its tail.  Nobody (entity or person) at that point can step out of the shadows and say they are the grand grantor of all this debt because unless they can defeat all of the most powerful militaries on Earth then they will simply be wiped off the map without another word said.

A lot of public debt is privately owned.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted...-u-s-debt/

[FCD]

A lot of public debt is privately owned.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted...-u-s-debt/

Indeed, but there's no way for those private investors to collect on that debt in a default situation, and what they can collect on before that point is often far less than the initial CAPEX.  The Bond holders will just be screwed.  This is one of the many methods governments will use to extract every last cent from their citizenry.  But it doesn't happen overnight (well, sometimes it does, but it won't with something as big as a superpower government).  In reality it's often a process which is so slow that investors are duped into thinking there is a bottom after which there will be a market turnaround.  It's like a gambling addiction; that big payday is just around the next bend.

Example...you invest in a treasury bond.  Then, before the bond matures, the debt becomes a crisis.  At this point a government will start printing money, devaluing its currency.  That's not why they're increasing the money supply, of course.  No, it's to make them liquid enough to pay, minimally, the debt service on the debt, if not the debt itself.  Then, the bond matures; the government is obligated to redeem investments as those 'private investors' now withdraw their funds and invest in other investment vehicles.  Even though the aggregate dollars they are paid back may be greater than those they invested initially, the comparative value of those dollars has dropped significantly below the value of the initial investment.  Guess who pockets the difference?  But it's not like there's something to "pocket" at that point.  In reality, they've long ago pocketed that differential value investment by having the utility of the debt for the duration or life of the bond(s) in question.  And no, investors don't have to wait for a bond to fully mature, but early withdrawal will result in diminished returns (often significant).

And then, in likely reality, even then the government still won't be liquid enough to redeem all those funds, even at the devalued rates.  So, what they will do then is turn around and issue more bonds, except these bonds will have a lower bond rating (i.e. a higher interest rate, but also a higher risk to investors, often scaring institutional investors, especially mutual funds (even private ones) off.  This is just an inescapable downward death-spiral at that point, and the whole cycle repeats, (wash, rinse and repeat) until there are no longer any investors willing or able to take the risk.  From there, you're into default proceedings where stuff gets sold off for pennies on the dollar.

edit - BTW, while all this is going on at the federal level, the same thing is taking place at the State and municipal level, compounding the overall problem.